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Lamb and Mutton Demand

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According to ABARE, Australian sale yard lamb prices are forecast to remain relatively high in 2005-06. This is higher than originally forecast due to the high beef prices caused by the reduction in red meat supply following the reimposition of bans on US beef into the Japanese market.  In the period to 2010-11 the sale yard price of lamb is expected to decline by around 14 percent in real terms, however it is expected that they will remain above the levels of the 90’s.

It is expected that strong demand will continue throughout 2005-06 with exports continuing to increase due to the disrupted trade in beef and chicken. Over the medium term total exports are projected to rise steadily before leveling off toward 2010-11.

Australia’s main lamb export market continues to be the US with exports to Asia, particularly Japan, rapidly rising.

The outlook for mutton remains strong, with prices remaining buoyant, aided by the increase in live sheep exports.

Graph 1: Outlook for Sheep Meat Production and Lamb Export Value

Outlook for Sheep Meat Production and Lamb Export Value

Source: ABARE, Australian Commodities 06.1 - March Quarter 2006.